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Short term exposure patterns in time-series studies of air pollution and health

Mohammed, Nuredin (2014) Short term exposure patterns in time-series studies of air pollution and health. In: University of Birmingham Graduate School Research Poster Conference 2014, 10th June 2014, University of Birmingham. (Unpublished)

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Background: Air pollution related risks on health are often reported using percentages. Hence, a 1% increase in mortality risk per 10 unit increase in pollution compares two days say with 2 and 12 units; the days need not be sequential. But a change from 2 to 12 could follow different patterns―increase by 2 units each day for 5 days, all in one go over 1 day, etc. As conventional studies don’t take into account such variation in exposure pattern, our study aims to assess its impact on risk estimates.

Methods: Using data on particulate pollution (PM) from London we defined exposure patterns on each day by counting number of
1-Positive changes in PM between successive days (delta)
2-PM peaks
3-Delta peaks
for the week just before the mortality day. We then investigated the association between PM and mortality accounting for exposure patterns.

Results: For a 10 unit increase in PM, the percentage increases in mortality (with 95% confidence interval) were 1.81(1.21–2.41), 6.46(3.55–9.45) and 2.28(0.8–3.78) for number of positive deltas≥4, PM10 peaks=3 and delta peaks=3 respectively. These were well above conventional estimate, 0.82(0.45–1.18), which ignored exposure patterns.

Conclusion: Allowing for exposure patterns could influence risk estimates.

Type of Work:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
School/Faculty:Colleges (2008 onwards) > College of Medical & Dental Sciences
Department:School of Health and Population Sciences
Additional Information:

Research Supervisors: Professor Jon Ayres, Dr Hubert Lam and Dr Richard Atkinson

Date:June 2014
Series/Collection Name:Prizewinners from the Graduate School Research Poster Conference 2014
Subjects:R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Related URLs:
Copyright Status:This poster is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this poster must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged.
Copyright Holders:The Author
ID Code:1920

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